Ukraine war latest: US arms advantage over Russia and China 'threatens global stability' (2024)

Poland has rowed back on its claim that a drone likely entered its airspace during a Russian attack on Ukraine last month.

A Polish army spokesperson said an object that entered the country's airspace early on the morning of 26 August was "most likely a drone" but weather conditions meant it couldn't be identified with complete certainty.

After 10 days of analysis and an extensive search failed to produce any trace of a Russian drone, General Maciej Klisz, head of the Polish army's operational command, said he believed the airspace had not been violated

"As a result of the analytical activities undertaken, I currently state that with a very high probability there was no violation of the airspace of the Republic of Poland on 26 August," he told reporters.

Poland has reported several other airspace violations during Russia's war with Ukraine, and General Klisz warned they could happen again.

The US has charged a Russian TV pundit and his wife over two separate schemes to violate sanctions imposed after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

The Department of Justice alleges that Dimitri Simes, 76, and Anastasia Simes, 55, took part in a plot to violate sanctions "for the benefit of sanctioned Russian broadcaster Channel One Russia", and to launder funds obtained through the scheme.

The couple have a home in the US state of Virginia but "remain at large and are believed to be in Russia", the department said.

Both are charged with one count of conspiracy to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, one count of violating the act, and a count of conspiracy to commit international money laundering.

They face up to 20 years in prison if convicted.

Ukraine's parliament has voted to appoint nine new ministers in the biggest government reshuffle since Russia's invasion in 2022.

We reported earlier that Andrii Sybiha was to take over the role of foreign minister from Dmytro Kuleba after he resigned, reportedly following clashes with Volodymyr Zelenskyy's head of office, Andriy Yermak (see 12.40pm).

Mr Kuleba, who was appointed foreign minister in March 2020, had become one of Kyiv's most notable public faces during the conflict.

The shakeup began earlier this week when several other ministers stepped down, while at least five cabinet seats were already vacant after earlier sackings.

The Ukrainian president proposed a slew of replacements which politicians signed off on today.

He said changes to Ukraine's government were necessary to strengthen it and achieve the results his country needed.

The number of people killed in a Russian ballistic missile strike in central Ukraine has risen again as the rescue operation is completed.

Ukraine's state emergency service said 55 people are now known to have died after the missiles struck a military institute and nearby hospital on Wednesday.

Some 328 people were wounded, it said on Telegram.

The attack was one of the deadliest carried out by Russian since the start of the war.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed that "Russian scum" would be held accountable for the strike and ordered an investigation.

Ukraine has achieved "a lot" with its incursion into Kursk in Russia, according to NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.

Unsurprisingly, his claim runs counter to that of Vladimir Putin, who this morning said the invasion had failed (see earlier post).

Speaking at a forum in eastern Russia, Mr Putin said it was designed to stall Moscow's advance in the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region, but had only succeeded in weakening Kyiv's defences.

Mr Stoltenberg has told reporters on a visit in Oslo that Ukraine's invasion has been an achievement.

But he did add that it's hard to say how the situation will develop next.

"Only the Ukrainians can make the difficult choices that areneeded, such as where to deploy their forces and what type ofwarfare is appropriate in this situation," Mr Stoltenberg said.

It comes in a critical, potentially pivotal, phase of the war.

Ukraine is waiting to see whether its surprise gamble to invade Russia's Kursk border region was worth it.

Meanwhile, outgunned Ukrainian soldiers are gradually being pushed backwards by Russia's months-long push deeper into eastern Ukraine.

The United States and its allies have enough conventional weapons capability to threaten or destroy all Russian and Chinese nuclear launch sites, new analysis suggests.

Two experts from SOAS University in London say Russian and Chinese nuclear launchers are actually more vulnerable than often considered, given "US and allies' technological and numerical advantages in conventional missiles and delivery systems".

China and Russia have 70 and 150 launchers in eastern central Asia, Professor Dan Plesch and Manuel Galileo write in a new paper.

"Against these,there are 4,400 Tomahawks and 3,500 JASSM missiles.

"Arithmetically, thenumbers favour the US and allies... not least given Russia and China's overall lesser detectioncapabilities and incrementally improving US missile defences."

Only Russian mobile and Chinese strategic systems buried deep underground "may be considered at all survivable in the face ofconventional missile attacks", they write.

This US advantage, and the fact it is generally underestimated, threatens stability and could fuel a fresh arms race, the authors warned.

"US global conventional firepower is underestimated, which threatens both the realities and the perceptions of strategic stability."

The Netherlands will buy new tanks, fighter jets, frigates and air defence systems as it ups its defence spending by more than 10% next year.

The Dutch government said it wanted to strengthen its forces in the face of new securitythreats, citing Russia.

"New threats demand action. Russia's ruthless aggression inUkraine shows an attack on the NATO alliance is no longerunthinkable," defence minister Ruben Brekelmans said.

The uplift of €2.4bn (£2m), takes the annual budget to around €24bn, and puts Dutch defence spending on course to meet NATO's minimum 2% of GDP defence spending guideline.

Other threats to national security come from China, Iran, terrorism and cyberattacks, he said.

Separately, NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg earlier told a conference he does not see anyimmediate military threat from Russia against NATO countries, but said therewas a constant danger of terrorism, cyber attacks and sabotage.

VladimirPutin has been eyeing closer relations with leaders in the Far East, as the sanctioned leader has been increasingly isolated on the world stage.

The president has been speaking today at a conference inVladivostok in Russia's far southeastern corner near the border with China and North Korea, as we covered earlier (see posts at 9.25am, 9.48am and11.54am).

He said: "The Far East has become a crucial factor for strengthening Russia's standing in the world and our flagship in the new global economic reality."

He even said the further development of the Far East would "largely determine the future of our country as a whole", according to a post on X by Russia's foreign ministry.

The Malaysian prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim, was also at the Eastern Economic Forum, speaking alongside Mr Putin.

And on Tuesday the Russian leader was in neighbouring Mongolia, which welcomed him with a red carpet - snubbing anInternational Criminal Court arrest warrant for Mr Putin on alleged war crimes.

Moscow and Beijing share an anti-US agenda, and formed closer economic ties in the face of Western sanctions.

Mr Putin rarely leaves Russia. The arrest warrant has been in place since March 2023, while sanctions against him and his allies have been cranked up by Western countries like the UK and US since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian MPs have voted to accept the resignation of foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba.

His departure is part of a major reshuffle ordered by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said Ukraine needs "new energy" at a critical time in the war against Russia.

Mr Zelenskyy has proposed Andrii Sybiha as his replacement.

As we reported earlier (see post at 9.03am), Mr Kuleba was likely forced out because he clashes with Mr Zelenskyy's head of office, Andriy Yermak.

"Everyone knew they had conflict. I once even witnessed an episode of it," an unnamed official told Politico.

Russia wants to keep its gas flowing to the European Union via a pipeline that runs through Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has said.

"As for Ukraine, we are not abandoning this transit, oddly enough. Why? Because we, and Gazprom, intend to fulfil all our obligations to our customers with whom we have long-term contracts," Mr Putin told the Eastern Economic Forum in eastern Russia this morning.

But he added Moscowcould not force Kyiv to maintain the transit agreement, which expiresat the end of this year.

While the EU has broadly ditched Russian gas in an attempt to hamper Russia's war efforts, it hasn't weaned itself off completely.

Imports of pipeline gas have plummeted from over 40% in 2021 to about 8% in 2023, according to EU data, though the share is higher if liquefied natural gas is included.

Mr Putin said that Gazprom's main consumers in Europe didnot seem to want the transit agreement to end, even though theyprovided military assistance to Ukraine.

The Soviet-eraUrengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipelinebrings gas from western Siberia via Sudzha in Russia'sKursk region, into Ukraine and then Slovakia, where it then divides towards Czechia and Austria.

The main remaining buyers are Slovakia, Austria and Hungary.